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Capital Markets

Capital Markets Insights

Research notes on earnings, market structure, and financial statements. Each piece starts with the conclusion, then lays out the evidence and implications.

2026-07-01

Bank stress test graphic with capital bars and return-of-capital signals
Banking / Policy
JPM / MS / WFC•9 min read

The Fed's 2026 Stress Test Turned Big Bank Capital Into a Buyback Story

The Fed said the 32 largest banks absorbed more than $708 billion of hypothetical losses and still kept capital above minimums. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo quickly responded with bigger dividends and buybacks. The deeper read is that capital is no longer trapped inside the system.

Hypothetical losses: $708BCapital decline: 1.6pp
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2026-06-30

Abstract launch and public market benchmark graphic showing SpaceX IPO valuation effects
Commercial Space / Capital Markets
SPCX•10 min read

SpaceX's IPO Repriced the Public Space Stack

SpaceX went public in the largest IPO in history, and the market has already started using it as a valuation anchor for every listed space and satellite name. That does not mean the public comps should all trade like SpaceX. It means investors now have to explain why some space assets deserve premium pricing and others do not.

IPO proceeds: $75BDay-one valuation: $2.1T
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2026-06-26

Abstract capital-markets backlog and funding bridge illustration
Capital Markets
ORCL•10 min read

OpenAI IPO Delay

OpenAI may wait until 2027 to go public instead of listing into a weak tape. That is a valuation choice, but it also stretches the private-capital bridge that supports Oracle, CoreWeave, SoftBank, and the Stargate buildout.

Potential timing: 2027Target valuation: $1T
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Abstract background showing a memory chip, rising price curve, and U.S. market backdrop
Capital Markets
SKHY•12 min read

SK Hynix Nasdaq Plan

SK hynix has filed to bring American Depositary Shares to Nasdaq under the symbol SKHY. The move is less a classic debut and more a capital-markets wrapper around an already dominant AI-memory business with heavy capex needs, a strong balance sheet, and a growing U.S. operating footprint.

1Q26 Revenue: KRW 52.6T1Q26 Op Profit: KRW 37.6T
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2026-06-24

Bank capital ratios, stress losses, and buyback capacity graphic
Financials / Banks
XLF•10 min read

The Fed Stress Test Keeps Big Bank Capital Returns in the Frame

The Federal Reserve says all 32 large banks stayed above minimum capital in its 2026 stress test even after more than $708 billion of hypothetical losses. Because current stress capital buffer requirements are being held until 2027, the near-term takeaway is not solvency fear but how much capital JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley can still return to shareholders.

Banks tested: 32Hypothetical losses: $708B+
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What to expect

Evidence-first notes with a visible point of view.

This section collects sharp takes on earnings, shareholder meetings, and market structure. Each new piece should make the thesis, the facts, and the implications obvious within the first few screens.

Expect direct analysis, not generic commentary.

Expect the data to be explicit and the argument to be easy to follow.

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