Hold through a cycle: crowds, crashes and when to sell
Buying is the short part. This path is about the years afterwards — what a crowd looks like from inside it, what a 30% drawdown does to your reasoning, and the two conditions that should actually make you sell.
What you will be able to do
- Treat a quoted price as an offer rather than a verdict
- Recognise the stage a market narrative has reached, and what usually follows it
- State in advance the conditions under which you would sell a holding
- Notice the mistakes that cost the most — the ones that never appear as a loss
The path, in order
- Mr. Market and Margin of Safety, Explained for BeginnersThe two tools everything else here rests on: a model for why the price moves like that, and a discipline that survives you being wrong.Mindset & psychology8 min read
- Second-Level Thinking: Why a Good Company Is Not a Good BuyWhy a widely admired company can still be a bad buy. It is the step from judging a business to judging a price.Mindset & psychology8 min read
- The Anatomy of a Bubble: Five Stages That Keep RepeatingThe crowd version of the same mistake, in five documented stages that have repeated since the 1630s — running on credit, not on enthusiasm.Mindset & psychology10 min read
- What to Do When the Market DropsThe same machinery running downhill. Down years are a feature of owning stocks; the story attached to them is the dangerous part.Mindset & psychology7 min read
- Warren Buffett's Six Rules of Investing — Which Ones Transfer to a Small AccountThe holding discipline stated as principles, with an honest note on which of them transfer to a small account and which do not.Picking & holding stocks11 min read
- When Not to Sell a Stock — Buffett Gave Two Opposite Answers, and Both Were RightThe decision itself. Buffett gave two contradictory answers and both were right — the contradiction is the lesson.Picking & holding stocks9 min read
- Your Best Ideas Are Not the ProblemThe measured version: forty-five professionals, their best ideas mostly losing money, and handling as the thing that separated them.Risk & trading system9 min read
- Buffett's Biggest Mistakes — The Expensive Ones Never Showed Up in the AccountsCloses on the errors that never appeared as a loss — the ones made by not acting, which no brokerage statement will ever show you.Picking & holding stocks10 min read
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Tracks this path draws on
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Research and value a company from scratch
The extra work, in the order it is actually done: read the accounts, sort the company, judge the business, then — last — argue about the price. Eleven guides, and the price question is deliberately not first.
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Executing the plan when it hurts
Having rules and following them are different skills, and only the second one is tested with money on the line. This path is about the specific moments the plan breaks, in the order they usually arrive.
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