Taiwan Semiconductor · Jun 28 – Aug 11, 2026
Most institutions in-scope maintained Buy/Outperform-style bullish positioning and raised/kept targets well above the current ~$416 share price, though one Hold stance with a higher target signals debate over how quickly advanced-node/AI-driven pricing converts to earnings.
Institutions
5
Target range
$440 – $650
Median $554
Stance
Coverage here is limited by what was publicly accessible in the rating-action snippets; additional firms may exist but were not publishable under the evidence rules. 2 target(s) published in another currency are shown on their own cards and left out of this range.
How to read the evidence grades
- AInstitution's own document — Published by the institution itself — research page, disclosure, transcript, or an on-the-record analyst appearance.
- BWire service citing the report — Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC and similar, directly attributing the research note.
- CMultiple independent reports — Several independent secondary reports agreeing on the same rating or target.
- DRatings aggregator only — A ratings aggregator only. Treat the number as reported, not as confirmed.
Price targets over time
Every target published in this window, by date. The line under a dot is that firm's previous target.
- BernsteinOutperform
$430$554
- BarclaysOverweight
$625$650
- TD CowenHold
$400$440
- CitiBuy
NT$2,875NT$3,800
- UBSBuy
T$3,000T$3,400
BernsteinTaiwan Semiconductor
Mark LiPrice target raised
Bernstein’s Mark Li lifted the target and kept an Outperform stance, reflecting continued conviction in AI-linked demand durability.
Why
- Target raised from $430 to $554 while keeping Outperform.
- The action was presented as part of an AI-demand backdrop for TSMC.
What could break it
- Rationale not fully disclosed in the accessible public snippet.
Evidence (1)
Proves: Bernstein (Mark Li) maintained Outperform and raised the price target from $430 to $554 on Aug 11, 2026.
B“Bernstein analyst Mark Li maintains Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $430 to $554.”
SahmCapital (reprint of analyst note details), Aug 11, 2026sahmcapital.com2026-08-11
TD CowenTaiwan Semiconductor
Krish SankarPrice target raised
TD Cowen raised its target but kept a Hold rating, indicating progress but not enough to turn fully bullish on risk/reward at the time.
Why
- Maintained Hold while raising the price target from $400 to $440.
- The accessible public reference did not include a granular rationale.
What could break it
- Rationale not publicly disclosed in the accessible snippet.
Evidence (1)
Proves: TD Cowen maintained a Hold on TSM and raised its price target from $400 to $440 on Jul 17, 2026.
B“TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar maintains Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM) with a Hold and raises the price target from $400 to $440.”
SahmCapital (reprint of analyst note details), Jul 17, 2026sahmcapital.com2026-07-17
CitiTaiwan Semiconductor
Price target raised
Citi lifted its Taiwan-dollar target on TSMC to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 while keeping a Buy stance, tied to an AI upcycle narrative.
Why
- Raised the target to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 and reiterated Buy.
- The reported framing connected the change to AI demand.
What could break it
- The public snippet did not provide a full valuation method.
Evidence (1)
Proves: Citi raised TSMC’s target to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 and maintained Buy on Jul 6, 2026.
B“The brokerage lifted its target price to NT$3,800 from NT$2,875 while maintaining its Buy rating, on 16 July.”
Yahoo Finance (AI/tech section syndication), Jul 6, 2026yahoo.com2026-07-06
BarclaysTaiwan Semiconductor
Simon ColesPrice target raised after Q2 earnings
Barclays raised its TSM target to $650 from $625 after TSMC's Q2 print, citing capex raised ahead of expectations as the company works to meet AI demand.
Why
- Raised the price target to $650 from $625 while maintaining Overweight.
- TSMC's capex was raised ahead of expectations as it continues to try to meet demand.
What could break it
- Specific underwriting/valuation math was not included in the accessible snippet.
Evidence (1)
Proves: Barclays raised TSM's price target to $650 from $625 on July 17, 2026, maintaining Overweight, following TSMC's Q2 earnings.
B“TSM's capex was also raised ahead of expectations as it continues to try and meet demand.”
The Globe and Mail, Jul 17, 2026theglobeandmail.com2026-07-17
UBSTaiwan Semiconductor
Price target raised
UBS increased its TSMC target in Taiwan dollars and kept a Buy stance ahead of earnings, citing improving demand/forward expectations.
Why
- Raised the Taiwan-dollar price target to T$3,400 from T$3,000 while maintaining Buy.
- Presented as a bullish stance into Q2 earnings.
What could break it
- The accessible snippet did not include a detailed breakdown of drivers beyond the headline framing.
Evidence (1)
Proves: UBS hiked TSMC’s price target to T$3,400 from T$3,000 and maintained Buy on Jun 28, 2026.
B“UBS hiked TSMC's price target to T$3,400 from T$3,000 and maintained its Buy rating on the stock.”
Investing.com, Jun 28, 2026investing.com2026-06-28
Synthesis over the window
Where institutions cluster—and where they diverge on advanced-node + AI demand
Most of the sourced institutional calls in this 90-day window are bullish and target re-rating to reflect AI-driven demand strength and confidence in the revenue/earnings path.
The clearest divergence is the TD Cowen case: a raised target ($440) paired with a Hold stance, which implies the firm viewed upside as real but not sufficient versus its risk/discounting framework.
Several targets are expressed in Taiwan-dollar terms (UBS, Citi), while others are in USD (Barclays, Bernstein), which limits direct apples-to-apples without FX assumptions.
Closest cross-coverage in the public rating-action set (adjacent semis)
- Often cited alongside AI supply-chain demand assumptions used to frame fab/packaging orders.
- Serves as a read-through for AI hardware capex timing affecting foundry utilization.
- AI accelerator demand is frequently referenced as the end-market driver for advanced-node production.
- Any pricing/demand inflection can change the implied path for foundry throughput and mix.
- Advanced-node progress depends on tool demand and shipment visibility.
- Capex cycles at leading-edge nodes can amplify or dampen the foundry demand narrative.
