United States — Federal Policy Risk
Regulatory / Political
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)35% of revenue depends on ICE detention policies. 2021 Biden administration had ordered phase-out of private prison contracts; Trump administration reversed course and expanded ICE detention. Policy whipsaw is a material risk.
U.S. Marshals Service (USMS)18% of revenue from USMS contracts, equally exposed to federal policy shifts on private prison usage.
Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP)Smaller federal exposure (1%) but BOP contracts are subject to same policy dynamics; DOJ had directed BOP to phase out private contracts in 2021.
