Build a trend-following system: ride winners, cut everything else
The style with the ugliest win rate and the best-documented survivors. Nine guides that start at the strict definition of a trend and end with rules you can replay: an entry regime, an exit that follows winners up, sizing that treats every market the same, and a test before any money moves.
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- Choose how you trade before you choose what to tradeThat path is where trend following is weighed against its alternatives — and where the 22-year study makes the case that this style's losses are the price of its winners. Arrive having chosen it, not defaulted into it.
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- Label any chart uptrend, downtrend or sideways using the strict two-part definition
- Describe the return profile you are signing up for — many small losses carried by a few large winners
- Run a trailing exit that stays in trends instead of banking the first bounce
- Size positions from volatility so a losing trade costs the same in every market
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- Uptrend, Downtrend or Neither: Identify the Trend Before the TradeThe object of the whole style, defined strictly: higher highs and higher lows together, or it is not a trend. Every later rule assumes this classification is already made.차트와 시장 구조6 분 분량
- Dow Theory: The Six Rules Every Chart Method Is Built OnThe century-old framework the definition comes from, plus the two ideas the modern clips leave out: trends have phases, and a trend needs confirmation before it deserves your money.차트와 시장 구조10 분 분량
- Moving Averages: One Dial, Not a Menu of SettingsThe same definition as one mechanical dial. A moving average is a trend classifier you cannot argue with — which is exactly what a system needs and a mood does not.차트와 시장 구조9 분 분량
- Trend Following: What a 22-Year Study Actually ShowsWhat the style's record actually looks like over twenty-two years: a losing trade most of the time, and a handful of outliers paying for all of it. Read this before writing rules, or the first losing streak will rewrite them for you.리스크와 매매 시스템8 분 분량
- The Turtle Trading Rules: What a Two-Week Course Actually TaughtOne complete, published trend system — entries, exits, sizing, pyramiding — run by beginners on purpose. This is the worked example the rest of the path fills in around.리스크와 매매 시스템11 분 분량
- Trailing Stops: The Exit That Follows the Trade UpThe exit that produces those few large winners: a stop that follows the trade up and never comes back down. The trail width is where your style choice becomes a number.리스크와 매매 시스템6 분 분량
- Size by Volatility, Not by ConvictionTrend systems scan many markets, and a fixed size treats them as equally risky when they are not. Size from each market's movement so every stop-out costs the same.리스크와 매매 시스템9 분 분량
- R-Multiples and Expectancy: The Only Two Numbers a Trading Record NeedsThe scoring system for a style whose win rate looks like failure. Losses in R and expectancy per trade are the only two numbers that show a 40%-win-rate system working.리스크와 매매 시스템10 분 분량
- Backtest a Trading Strategy Without Fooling YourselfNow replay the whole stack — regime, entry, trail, size — with costs and an unseen final period. A trend system's edge lives in a few big trades; the test shows whether your rules would have actually held them.리스크와 매매 시스템7 분 분량
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다음 경로
How much to bet, and every way people get it wrong
You already know how to work out a size from a risk cap and a stop. This is the harder half: the size is right for a market that moves this much, it has a mathematical ceiling, and there are two very ordinary habits that quietly remove it.
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Build a trading system someone else could run
From three words most material uses interchangeably to a written document you could hand to a stranger. The test at the end is not profit — it is whether someone else could follow it and get your trades.
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Executing the plan when it hurts
Having rules and following them are different skills, and only the second one is tested with money on the line. This path is about the specific moments the plan breaks, in the order they usually arrive.
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