Market statistics
Asset class returns by year: stocks, bonds, gold, REITs and commodities
The best asset class of the year has finished last within three years more often than it has repeated. The table shows the ordering; the correlation matrix underneath shows why nothing about it is stable.
2008–2025 · data through 28 Aug 2026
2008–2025
- Average best-to-worst spread
- 42.2 pts
- widest 2009 · narrowest 2018
- Winner repeated
- 4 of 21
- 19.0% of the time
- Lowest correlation to US equities
- Long UST
- -0.10 on monthly returns
- US large cap, 2008–2025
- 10.97%
- annualised, dividends reinvested
| Rank | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Long UST+33.9% | EM+69.0% | Gold+29.3% | Long UST+34.0% | EM+19.1% | US small+38.7% | REITs+30.4% | REITs+2.4% | US small+21.6% | EM+37.3% | Cash+1.8% | US large+31.2% | Gold+24.8% | Commodities+41.3% | Commodities+19.4% | US large+26.2% | Gold+26.7% | Gold+63.7% | Commodities+37.7% |
| 2 | US bonds+7.9% | REITs+30.2% | REITs+28.4% | Gold+9.6% | Intl dev+18.8% | US large+32.3% | Long UST+27.3% | US large+1.2% | Commodities+18.6% | Intl dev+25.1% | US bonds+0.1% | REITs+28.9% | US small+20.0% | REITs+40.6% | Cash+1.4% | Intl dev+18.4% | US large+24.9% | EM+34.0% | EM+23.4% |
| 3 | Gold+4.9% | US small+28.5% | US small+26.9% | REITs+8.6% | REITs+17.7% | Intl dev+21.5% | US large+13.5% | US bonds+0.5% | High yield+13.4% | US large+21.7% | Long UST-1.6% | US small+25.4% | US large+18.3% | US large+28.7% | Gold-0.8% | US small+16.8% | US small+11.4% | Intl dev+31.6% | US small+20.7% |
| 4 | Cash+1.6% | High yield+28.5% | EM+16.5% | US bonds+7.7% | US small+16.7% | High yield+5.8% | US bonds+6.0% | Cash-0.1% | US large+12.0% | US small+14.6% | Gold-1.9% | Intl dev+22.0% | Long UST+18.2% | US small+14.5% | High yield-11.5% | Gold+12.7% | High yield+8.0% | US large+17.7% | Intl dev+14.0% |
| 5 | High yield-17.6% | Intl dev+27.0% | US large+15.1% | High yield+6.8% | US large+16.0% | REITs+2.3% | US small+5.0% | Intl dev-1.0% | EM+10.8% | Gold+12.8% | High yield-2.0% | EM+18.3% | EM+17.1% | Intl dev+11.5% | US bonds-13.2% | REITs+11.9% | EM+6.5% | US small+12.7% | US large+13.4% |
| 6 | Commodities-31.8% | US large+26.4% | Commodities+11.9% | US large+1.9% | High yield+11.6% | Cash-0.1% | High yield+1.9% | Long UST-1.8% | REITs+8.6% | Long UST+8.5% | US large-4.6% | Gold+17.9% | Intl dev+7.6% | High yield+3.8% | Intl dev-14.4% | High yield+11.0% | Cash+5.2% | High yield+8.6% | REITs+12.0% |
| 7 | US small-34.2% | Gold+24.0% | High yield+11.9% | Cash0.0% | Gold+6.6% | US bonds-2.0% | Cash-0.1% | US small-4.5% | Gold+8.0% | REITs+4.9% | REITs-6.0% | Long UST+14.1% | US bonds+7.5% | Cash-0.1% | US large-18.2% | EM+9.0% | REITs+4.8% | Commodities+8.1% | Gold+3.2% |
| 8 | US large-36.8% | Commodities+16.2% | Long UST+9.0% | Commodities-2.6% | US bonds+3.7% | EM-3.7% | Gold-2.2% | High yield-5.0% | US bonds+2.4% | Commodities+4.9% | US small-11.1% | High yield+14.1% | High yield+4.4% | US bonds-1.8% | US small-20.5% | US bonds+5.4% | Intl dev+3.5% | US bonds+7.2% | Cash+2.4% |
| 9 | REITs-37.0% | US bonds+3.0% | Intl dev+8.2% | US small-4.4% | Commodities+3.5% | Commodities-7.6% | EM-3.9% | Gold-10.7% | Intl dev+1.4% | High yield+4.7% | Commodities-11.6% | Commodities+11.9% | Cash+0.4% | EM-3.7% | EM-20.5% | Cash+5.0% | Commodities+2.2% | Long UST+4.3% | High yield+2.4% |
| 10 | Intl dev-41.0% | Cash+0.2% | US bonds+6.4% | Intl dev-12.2% | Long UST+2.7% | Long UST-13.4% | Intl dev-6.2% | EM-16.2% | Long UST+1.2% | US bonds+2.9% | Intl dev-13.8% | US bonds+8.5% | REITs-4.6% | Gold-4.2% | REITs-26.2% | Long UST+2.5% | US bonds+1.3% | Cash+4.2% | US bonds-0.1% |
| 11 | EM-48.9% | Long UST-21.8% | Cash0.0% | EM-18.8% | Cash-0.1% | Gold-28.3% | Commodities-28.1% | Commodities-27.6% | Cash+0.1% | Cash+0.6% | EM-15.3% | Cash+2.0% | Commodities-7.8% | Long UST-4.6% | Long UST-31.4% | Commodities-6.2% | Long UST-8.1% | REITs+3.3% | Long UST-2.4% |
- US largeSPY
- US smallIWM
- Intl devEFA
- EMEEM
- REITsVNQ
- US bondsAGG
- Long USTTLT
- High yieldHYG
- GoldGLD
- CommoditiesDBC
- CashBIL
| US large | US small | Intl dev | EM | REITs | US bonds | Long UST | High yield | Gold | Commodities | Cash | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US large cap | — | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.23 | -0.10 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 0.44 | -0.05 |
| US small cap | 0.87 | — | 0.78 | 0.70 | 0.73 | 0.16 | -0.15 | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.41 | -0.07 |
| Developed international | 0.86 | 0.78 | — | 0.85 | 0.71 | 0.31 | -0.05 | 0.76 | 0.21 | 0.51 | -0.02 |
| Emerging markets | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.85 | — | 0.60 | 0.27 | -0.05 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.52 | 0.00 |
| US REITs | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.60 | — | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.76 | 0.13 | 0.29 | -0.05 |
| US aggregate bonds | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.40 | — | 0.84 | 0.44 | 0.35 | -0.09 | 0.05 |
| Long Treasuries (20y+) | -0.10 | -0.15 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0.14 | 0.84 | — | 0.04 | 0.23 | -0.33 | 0.00 |
| US high-yield bonds | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.44 | 0.04 | — | 0.16 | 0.40 | -0.05 |
| Gold | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.16 | — | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| Broad commodities | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.29 | -0.09 | -0.33 | 0.40 | 0.31 | — | 0.02 |
| Cash (1-3 month T-bills) | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.02 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.18 | 0.02 | — |
| Asset class | Fund | Since | Annualised | Volatility | Deepest fall | Best year | Worst year | 2008–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US large cap | SPY | 1994 | 10.70% | 18.5% | -55.2%2009 | +38.1%1995 | -36.8%2008 | 10.97% |
| US small cap | IWM | 2001 | 8.15% | 23.9% | -59.1%2009 | +47.4%2003 | -34.2%2008 | 8.22% |
| Developed international | EFA | 2002 | 6.56% | 20.8% | -61.0%2009 | +38.7%2003 | -41.0%2008 | 4.21% |
| Emerging markets | EEM | 2004 | 7.22% | 27.1% | -66.4%2008 | +69.0%2009 | -48.9%2008 | 2.66% |
| US REITs | VNQ | 2005 | 6.62% | 28.3% | -73.1%2009 | +40.6%2021 | -37.0%2008 | 6.37% |
| US aggregate bonds | AGG | 2004 | 3.07% | 5.2% | -18.4%2022 | +8.5%2019 | -13.2%2022 | 2.83% |
| Long Treasuries (20y+) | TLT | 2003 | 3.32% | 14.3% | -48.5%2023 | +34.0%2011 | -31.4%2022 | 2.61% |
| US high-yield bonds | HYG | 2008 | 4.97% | 10.9% | -34.3%2008 | +28.5%2009 | -17.6%2008 | 4.97% |
| Gold | GLD | 2005 | 11.06% | 18.2% | -45.6%2015 | +63.7%2025 | -28.3%2013 | 9.11% |
| Broad commodities | DBC | 2007 | 0.60% | 19.3% | -76.4%2020 | +41.3%2021 | -31.8%2008 | -0.89% |
| Cash (1-3 month T-bills) | BIL | 2008 | 1.20% | 0.5% | -0.8%2015 | +5.2%2024 | -0.1%2015 | 1.20% |
Total returns: the closes are adjusted for distributions, so every figure here includes reinvested dividends and is net of the fund's own expenses. One widely held fund per asset class, chosen for length of history rather than for size. Full provenance, method and a citation line are in Sources and method below.
What was working when equities were not
2008 is the column to read first. US large caps returned -36.8% and the top of that column is Long Treasuries (20y+) at +33.9%. That inversion is the entire case for holding more than one asset, and it is visible in a way no summary statistic makes it.
The correlation matrix underneath says which of these were genuinely different things. the lowest monthly correlation with US equities is Long Treasuries (20y+) at -0.10, and it, gold and cash are the only entries anywhere near zero — everything else sits closer to equities than to them. High-yield bonds, REITs and international equities are high enough that they behaved like equities in the months that mattered — diversification by label rather than by behaviour.
2022 is the counter-example the matrix does not capture, and it is on this page in full. Bonds and equities fell together, which the long-run correlation says is unusual and which happened anyway, because the driver that year was the discount rate and it moves both. A correlation is an average over regimes, not a promise about the next one.
The leadership row is the same finding as on the sector page: across 21 consecutive pairs of years the leader repeated 4 times. Emerging markets has led most often, 6 times. Every fund here is a proxy — a different high-yield or commodity fund would move those rows — which is stated in the method note rather than hidden in a footnote, because it is the honest limit on what this table can be used for.
Questions people ask about this
- What does this show that a stocks-versus-bonds chart does not?
- The ordering, and how unstable it is. A two-line chart shows which of two things won over a window you did not choose. Ranking eleven asset classes every year shows that the winner changes almost annually, that the spread between first and last is routinely forty points or more, and that the years bonds and gold led are precisely the years equities fell.
- Which of these actually diversified equities?
- On the monthly correlation matrix, long Treasuries and gold are the only two with a correlation near zero or below against US large caps. High-yield bonds, REITs and international equities all sit high enough that they behaved like equities in the months it mattered. Aggregate bonds sit in between, and 2022 is the year on this page where that in-between position failed.
- Why start in 2008?
- Because that is the first complete year in which every fund in the lineup existed, and a ranking is only meaningful when the same competitors are in it. The earlier years each fund does have are kept in its own row and in its long-run summary; they are just not ranked against a smaller field.
Sources and method
- Data
- Financial Modeling Prep — Daily adjusted closing levels and quotes, retrieved through Plutux's own data service.
- The fund sponsors — State Street, BlackRock (iShares), Vanguard and Invesco each sponsor one or more of the funds used as the proxy for an asset class.
- How it was calculated
- One widely held fund per asset class, chosen for length of history, measured from split- and distribution-adjusted closes: total returns, net of each fund's expenses. A calendar year's return is the last close of that year against the last close of the previous year. The ranked table starts at the first complete year in which every fund in the lineup existed; each fund's own summary uses its full history, and the comparable-window column uses the shared one. Correlations are Pearson correlations of monthly returns over the months each pair shares. Fund choices are proxies, not the asset classes themselves — a different high-yield or commodity fund would move those rows.
- How often it changes
- Regenerated from the full daily history about once a year; the date it runs through is at the top of the page.
- Citing this page
Free to quote — please link rather than copy the table.
Plutux. "Asset class returns by year: stocks, bonds, gold, REITs and commodities." Data through 28 Aug 2026. https://plutux.ai/es/resources/tools/asset-class-returns-by-year
Historical figures for information only — not investment advice, and not a forecast.
Related tools
- Sector returns by yearAll eleven sectors ranked year by year, with how often last year's winner won again — which is almost never.
- World market correlationsA correlation matrix for twelve national indices — monthly, daily, and daily with the time-zone offset removed.
- Historical drawdownsPeak, trough, depth, and how long it took to get back — for every decline of at least 10% in the record.
Plutux no es un asesor de inversiones. Los datos de mercado y el análisis generado por IA son solo informativos y educativos, no asesoramiento de inversión. Aviso legal