Build a trend-following system: ride winners, cut everything else
The style with the ugliest win rate and the best-documented survivors. Nine guides that start at the strict definition of a trend and end with rules you can replay: an entry regime, an exit that follows winners up, sizing that treats every market the same, and a test before any money moves.
Antes de esta ruta
- Choose how you trade before you choose what to tradeThat path is where trend following is weighed against its alternatives — and where the 22-year study makes the case that this style's losses are the price of its winners. Arrive having chosen it, not defaulted into it.
Lo que sabrás hacer al terminar
- Label any chart uptrend, downtrend or sideways using the strict two-part definition
- Describe the return profile you are signing up for — many small losses carried by a few large winners
- Run a trailing exit that stays in trends instead of banking the first bounce
- Size positions from volatility so a losing trade costs the same in every market
La ruta, en orden
- Uptrend, Downtrend or Neither: Identify the Trend Before the TradeThe object of the whole style, defined strictly: higher highs and higher lows together, or it is not a trend. Every later rule assumes this classification is already made.Gráficos y estructura de mercado6 min de lectura
- Dow Theory: The Six Rules Every Chart Method Is Built OnThe century-old framework the definition comes from, plus the two ideas the modern clips leave out: trends have phases, and a trend needs confirmation before it deserves your money.Gráficos y estructura de mercado10 min de lectura
- Moving Averages: One Dial, Not a Menu of SettingsThe same definition as one mechanical dial. A moving average is a trend classifier you cannot argue with — which is exactly what a system needs and a mood does not.Gráficos y estructura de mercado9 min de lectura
- Trend Following: What a 22-Year Study Actually ShowsWhat the style's record actually looks like over twenty-two years: a losing trade most of the time, and a handful of outliers paying for all of it. Read this before writing rules, or the first losing streak will rewrite them for you.Riesgo y sistema de trading8 min de lectura
- The Turtle Trading Rules: What a Two-Week Course Actually TaughtOne complete, published trend system — entries, exits, sizing, pyramiding — run by beginners on purpose. This is the worked example the rest of the path fills in around.Riesgo y sistema de trading11 min de lectura
- Trailing Stops: The Exit That Follows the Trade UpThe exit that produces those few large winners: a stop that follows the trade up and never comes back down. The trail width is where your style choice becomes a number.Riesgo y sistema de trading6 min de lectura
- Size by Volatility, Not by ConvictionTrend systems scan many markets, and a fixed size treats them as equally risky when they are not. Size from each market's movement so every stop-out costs the same.Riesgo y sistema de trading9 min de lectura
- R-Multiples and Expectancy: The Only Two Numbers a Trading Record NeedsThe scoring system for a style whose win rate looks like failure. Losses in R and expectancy per trade are the only two numbers that show a 40%-win-rate system working.Riesgo y sistema de trading10 min de lectura
- Backtest a Trading Strategy Without Fooling YourselfNow replay the whole stack — regime, entry, trail, size — with costs and an unseen final period. A trend system's edge lives in a few big trades; the test shows whether your rules would have actually held them.Riesgo y sistema de trading7 min de lectura
El progreso se guarda solo en este navegador: no hay cuenta, y se borra al borrar los datos del sitio.
Categorías que usa esta ruta
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You already know how to work out a size from a risk cap and a stop. This is the harder half: the size is right for a market that moves this much, it has a mathematical ceiling, and there are two very ordinary habits that quietly remove it.
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Build a trading system someone else could run
From three words most material uses interchangeably to a written document you could hand to a stranger. The test at the end is not profit — it is whether someone else could follow it and get your trades.
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Executing the plan when it hurts
Having rules and following them are different skills, and only the second one is tested with money on the line. This path is about the specific moments the plan breaks, in the order they usually arrive.
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