Build a mean-reversion system: buy the dip with rules, not hope
Everyone's first instinct — it fell, so it's cheap — turned into rules with boundaries. Nine guides on when stretched prices actually snap back, the tools that measure the stretch, one complete tested system, and the honesty checks that keep dip-buying from becoming knife-catching.
Antes de esta ruta
- Choose how you trade before you choose what to tradeThat path sets up the one distinction this whole path stands on: mean reversion needs a range or a regime, and trend following needs the opposite. Arrive knowing which market condition you are buying.
Lo que sabrás hacer al terminar
- Say which holding periods reward buying weakness and which punish it
- Read RSI and Bollinger Bands as stretch measures rather than buy signals
- Recount a fully specified dip-buying system — and name the rule it deliberately lacks
- Backtest a reversion rule with costs and unseen data before trusting its win rate
La ruta, en orden
- Mean Reversion: When a Price Has Gone Too FarThe idea itself: a reference level, a stretch away from it, and a bet on the return trip. Also the first warning — a stretched price in a trend is not stretched, it is trending.Gráficos y estructura de mercado7 min de lectura
- “Buy Low, Sell High” Is a Style, Not a Law — and It Has a Time HorizonThe boundary of the style, drawn on the horizon axis: reversion pays at the very short and very long ends, and the weeks-to-months middle belongs to strength. Know which end your holding period sits on before writing any rule.Gráficos y estructura de mercado7 min de lectura
- "Overbought" Does Not Mean SellThe stretch gauge most dip rules are built on, read correctly: overbought and oversold describe distance, not destiny, and the gauge's whole range shifts with the trend.Gráficos y estructura de mercado8 min de lectura
- Bollinger Bands Measure Volatility, Not ValueThe second gauge, and the same correction: the bands measure volatility, not value. A close outside the band is a measurement of stretch — the trade still needs a reason the stretch should close.Gráficos y estructura de mercado8 min de lectura
- The RSI-2 Dip-Buying System, Tested — and the Rule It Quietly Leaves OutThe worked example: a 200-day regime filter, a two-period RSI trigger, an exit into strength, and eighteen years of results — including the rule the system quietly does not have.Riesgo y sistema de trading7 min de lectura
- Buying an Index ETF Only on Red Days — What the One-Minute Rule Actually DoesThe index-investor version of the same instinct, tested. Buying red days barely changes the outcome — evidence that dip-buying's value is behavioural, not predictive, unless the rules above supply the edge.Índices, costes y interés compuesto10 min de lectura
- Where to Set a Stop Loss, and When to Move ItThe hard question the worked example dodged: reversion entries fight the recent move, so a structural stop is what separates a dip trade from riding a collapse to the bottom.Riesgo y sistema de trading10 min de lectura
- Backtest a Trading Strategy Without Fooling YourselfReplay the rules with costs and a final unseen period. Dip systems win often and lose big, so the test has to surface the drawdowns the win rate hides.Riesgo y sistema de trading7 min de lectura
- Why Your Backtest Looks Better Than Your AccountThe closing discipline, because reversion rules are the easiest to overfit: thresholds like 10 and 70 tune beautifully to the past. If the edge only exists at one setting, it is not an edge.Riesgo y sistema de trading10 min de lectura
El progreso se guarda solo en este navegador: no hay cuenta, y se borra al borrar los datos del sitio.
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